Handicapping Your Own Horse Races Articles | Horse Betting

By: Richard Bleuze

If your looking for horse handicapping tips and strategy you have come to the right place.  However, I recommend that you learn to handicap your own horses!

As far as the handicapping goes, there are three basic steps.  The first step is understanding if you can expect any surprises in the race.  By this I mean, how much confidence do you have that your prediction will become reality and thus not waste your analysis.  What factors in a race allow you to measure confidence.  Why is a certain horse better than another horse.  You learn these questions and many more by learning to handicap your own horses.  This, in turn, will build confidence since you will know that a certain horse will run like you have predicted!  

The second step is how to measure a horse’s ability on a given day.  That’s easier said than done, but the key phrase in that sentence is “On A Given Day.”  Anybody can look at a Daily Racing Form and tell the whole world how a horse has done in the past.  But you can’t make a bet today on a race that was run yesterday. 

Thus, you must learn by handicapping how to pick the right horse before the race!  You will do this by learning the “profile of the winner” for each and every race.  You will only learn this by handicapping the horse and thus create a perfect union between the past performances and today’s winning profile.  Thus, by creating this perfect union, you will be able to accurately predict which horses have a chance to win and which horses do not have a chance to win.

The third, and final, step is to combine the lessons from the first two steps and make a final wagering decision.  From step one, you will have a head’s up on what surprises you can expect in the race, and from step two you will know which horses fit the “winning profile” for today!  And in step 3 you will learn how to make your final betting decision. 

Unless I get the message straight from the horse's mouth or another part of the anatomy, I rely on handicapping the horse.

However, I'm not opposed to following sensible advice on making those selections such as the following:

Avoid first-time starters on the rail, especially in sprints, because speed horses breaking outside of them often prove intimidating.

Pay attention to fast workouts within a week of the next race.

Watch for a thoroughbred entered in a sprint after racing first or second near the far turn in a route before weakening.

Know you trainers and jockey.  Learn which jockeys have the edge on off-tracks and finish in the money about 25 percent of the time.

Post positions mean more when a horse shows a preference for winning from the inside or outside.

Look for thoroughbreds who exhibit improvement by the decreasing number of beaten lengths and increasing speed figures.

Weight comes into play in routes -- a five-pound advantage is worth about a length.

Horses encountering traffic problems in large fields should be tabbed when part of a small field.

If you bet on exotic bets, always include a long shot unless your handicapping shows that the favorite appears truly unbeatable.

Discount so-called inside information. Bet your own horses. Do your own handicapping.

So the next time you get a tip, check out the horse and see if the thoroughbred passes your handicapping test. And let your wagering conscience be your guide.