Market Move Strategy Articles | Horse Betting

By: Richard Bleuze

Market move strategy

The horse which the racebook thinks will win will normally be the one which opens as favorite.  And what is the strike rate of horses which open as favorites?  Usually around 35 per cent.

This means that the racebook, when all is said and done, can pick around 35 per cent of the winners.  This is a pretty good achievement when you consider that the racebook has to pick a horse in every single race of the day and can't be selective. 

However, the horse bettor will not make a profit if the horse bettor backs favorites blind to level stakes.  Why?  Well, simply because they are favorites and are not likely to offer much in the way of value.

Thus, the horse bettor to make money, must look for market moves.  We wait for the opening show of any particular race and make a note of the favorite at the time of the opening.  We then wait a little longer and see if the odds on offer for this original favorite drifts out.  If it does drift out
by half a point or more, we back it.  If it doesn't drift by this amount, we don't back it.

Simply, is it not!

The reason this strategy works is because the racebook must constantly adjust the prices of each runner in a race according to market demand.  Thus, if Joe Public thinks that some stinking 20/1 nag is worth a bet, and money piles on, the racebook has no choice but to cut the odds from 20/1 down to a lower level of say 16/1.  Because the overall book needs to balance, this contraction needs to be countered by an extension to one or two of the other horses in the race.  Thus a horse that was originally 1 1/10 may now "drift" out to 6/4 or even further.

Now the important point to remember here is that the racebook has NOT changed their original opinion of which horse is most likely to win.  As far as they are concerned, the original favorite still has the best chance of passing the winning post in first place.  But now the odds on offer for this horse are greater than they would like them to be.

Of course, backing every favorite that drifts by half a point or more isn't really feasible because you might get a 7/1 favorite drifting to 9/1 in a 25 runner bumper, and this sort of race is extremely difficult to win.  What we should do therefore is limit ourselves to favorites which open at odds of less than 6/4.  This will help us generate a decent strike rate and some good profits in the process.

This plan is one that I have used for years, and believe me, it has massive money-making potential. 

Hopefully you will realize that it is an excellent way of making money and will use it to good effect in helping you to achieve your financial goals.  Paper trade the method for a while and before long I guarantee that you will be using the market move strategy.

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