Picking Longshots In Horse Betting Articles | Horse Betting

By: Richard Bleuze

Picking longshots in horse betting.

If you want a simple horse racing system that will help you to pick some longshot winners, I recommend that you use a method such as the following:

1.  Use a checklist to see if a horse that is going off at long odds has a chance of winning. The following odds will let you know if it is a longshot.

field size odds
5 horses 6-1 or more
6 horses 8-1 or more
7-9 horses 12-1 or more
10 or more 15-1 or more

2.  The next step is to figure out if the favorite can be beaten, so answer these simple questions.

A.  does the favorite have faster speed ratings at today's surface and distance than any other horse in the race and
B. has it raced within the last 40 days?

If the answer to the above questions is yes to, then, do not bet against the favorite.

If the answer to the above two questions is "no", then you might have a false favorite and thus it becomes reasonable to look for a longshot winner.  See if any horse that is going off at the above odds qualifies using this simple checklist...

1. Has the horse won at this distance?
2. Has the horse won at this level (same class)?
3. Has the horse raced within the last 40 days?
4. If the horse hasn't raced in the last 40 days, has it ever won off a layoff that is as long as today's layoff?
5. Is the horse picked by at least one public handicapper to finish in the top three finishers?
6. Is the horse being ridden by a better jockey today than in its last race?

If you can find a horse that you can answer yes to at least three of the six  above questions, then you may have a legitimate longshot bet.  However, be careful and remember, it is a longshot for a good reason and longshots do not win very often, but when they do, the payoffs can be substantial.