Betting The Long Shot When Betting Thoroughbred Horses Articles | Horse Betting

By: Richard Bleuze

Betting The Long Shot When Betting Thoroughbred Horses.

Thoroughbred horses are intelligent and born to race.  However, like all athletes, horses require proper diet and training routines to reach their peak performance levels.  Horse trainers and jockeys are a significant factors in handicapping.  Thus, I recommend that you observe the trainer/jockey combinations when making betting decisions.  The money value of the purses for which thoroughbred horses compete is generally related to the quality or “class” of the race.

When betting thoroughbred horses, I suggest that you consider the following as a general approach to making a decision:

1.  Statistically, over a large number of races, the percentage of winning favorites is between 25 and 35 percent.

2.  A thoroughbred horse past performance is a good indicator of a future horse race.  In thoroughbred horse racing the Daily Racy Form and track programs provide past performance information, plus the names of the owner, trainer, jockey, along with the sire and dam of the horse, and purse money earned.  From a betting aspect it is often important to note leading trainer and jockey combinations, along with the “class” of a horse.

3.  Do your own handicapping.  However, in the back of your mind, know the morning line.  The initial reference for odds determination is provided by the track handicapper, a knowledgeable horseman whose primary job is to post a morning line with his estimate of what the odds will be at post time. Often the bettor, after doing his own handicapping, will agree with the odds of the morning line.  But, remember, the final odds are determined by the amount of money bet on the horse.  Thus, if the morning line lists a probable favorite at 2/1, and the horse bettor tends to agree, but large amounts are bet on the horse, and its odds are even money or less as post time is near, it becomes a questionable risk reward ratio.  If on the other hand, the horse attracts unusual betting, and the odds on the morning line favorite becomes 7/2, the bet may become more attractive.

4.  Just remember, the odds in pari-mutuel betting are determined by the amount bet on each horse in the WIN pool.  The track takes a percentage of the total amount bet, usually 20 percent, and the remainder is returned to the bettors at the closing odds.

Because of the above factors, you will soon learn the following:

1.  Over a period of time, betting the same amount on each race will cause you to incur a net loss.

2.  Thus, some progressive system of betting must be used to provide a reasonable probability of success. This can be as simple as increasing the size of a wager after a losing bet until a win returns enough to show a profit.

Since many horse bettors would like to strike it rich, the exotic bets, such as exacta, trifecta, and superfecta, provide more attraction and fun than a systematic small gain.  In order to cash a winning exotic bet with a huge payout, a long shot must be in the mix.

Here are a few things to consider when searching for a potential long shot:

1.  The addition of blinkers and/or lasix for the first time.

2.  Running after a long layoff. 

3.  A drop in class after several poor races.

4.  On a sloppy or muddy track, a horse with early speed that often quits on a fast track.

5.  A leading jockey or apprentice on a horse that has no chance.

6.  The thoroughbred horse shows a past performance on a similar course where it has won or raced well.  The horse bettor should consider the odds.

7.  A recent bullet workout was performed by the thoroughbred horse.  A bullet workout refers to a large lack dot beside a workout, which indicates that it worked the fastest time for that workout distance.  This is especially important if there were a number of horses working the distance.

8.  When you are handicapping a race with several horses displaying early speed,  thoroughbred horses that come from off the pace closers deserve attention.

Finally, in a race where the only horse displaying early speed is at long odds, it is often worth a bet.

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