Using the Jockey Factor in the Handicapping A Horse Race Articles | Horse Betting

By: Richard Bleuze

Using the Jockey Factor in the Handicapping A Horse Race

Why can the jockey be important in a horse race?  Well, things happen at the gate when a horse is not ready and the latch opens, the horse gets tangled up leaving and then bumped, a rider decides to take the overland route losing several lengths and the winner comes up the inside path he has vacated to win by a half-length, etc.  The situations described as happen at least once to every horseplayer out there at one time or another.

While not all of these above events are the jockey’s fault, they do beg the question of whether one can intelligently use the jockey factor in the handicapping process.  However, the jockey factor can play a part in the above problems that are often seen during a horse race.  If every jockey’s intent is to only ride the best horse, or the jockey and his agent’s opinion of the best horse, the jockey factor can be placed very high in the selection process.  However, a jockey’s appearance on a horse does not necessarily mean that the horse is meant to win today.

A few reasons why the jockey factor as well as the horse itself should by used in handicapping the race are:

1 – the jockey might be riding as a courtesy for a stable for which he rides a top stakes horse, or many live horses;
2 – the jockey might be riding a horse to familiarize himself for a later engagement;
3 – the jockey might be aboard a promising young horse that needs more ground, or a different surface or some race experience;
4 – the jockey might be hoping to get into a top barn in the hopes of riding some of their better horses;
5 – the jockey and/or the agent may be friendly with the owner or trainer; and the list goes on!

Perhaps the best approach to evaluate the jockey in a horse race is to put yourself in the trainer’s shoes.  It should not be unreasonable to assume that if you, as a good handicapper, like the horse today, then the trainer would too!

Should the race today be merely a learning experience or a conditioning race for the horse, then the trainer opts for a jockey who will follow instructions and who can accomplish what he wants the horse to get out of race today.  To hone speed you get a good gate boy or a bug boy, to teach a horse to rate you get a strong jockey to take a hold, etc.

However, if the trainer has a racing horse in sharp condition and properly situated as to distance, surface and class, which jockey does he try to get?  Other than the trainers who do not really believe that the jockey makes that much of a difference, or want a jockey who will follow instructions, he would obviously try to get the best jockey he can so as to not waste all that hard pre-race preparation.

Thus, the three most likely choices come from amongst these categories:

1 — The stable has a current go to jockey that they use for most of their live runners

2 — A jockey who has won on the horse before; even better if he has won more than once; this is an added plus if the horse itself has some peculiarities or idiosyncrasies of its own.

3 — A top five or top tier jockey at the current meeting.  At every track there is a group of leading jockeys which may number three or five or seven; there is a divide between this group and the rest in terms of numbers of wins.  

Generally, jockeys do NOT win races; the best can only ensure that the best horse does not lose.  As a rule, jockeys cannot give the horse extra conditioning or speed or stamina.  Jockeys can, however, ensure that the horse saves as much ground as possible, has clear sailing when asked to run, has not squandered its energy resources foolishly in an unnecessary duel and does not lose valuable momentum by properly timing the move coming out of the turn.

Just remember, jockeys lose races, many races, by making mistakes — some foolish ones.  I am NOT suggesting that jockeys have an easy task or that the horses will always do what they ask of them.  Everyone, including me, respects their courage for it is a tough and dangerous job.  Just remember, that the cream of the crop understand pace, ground loss, momentum and timing.  Generally, jockeys are confident and convey that confidence to the horses they ride.  Jockeys understand the bias if there is one and where to place their horses in terms of paths and early or late.  Good jockeys move at the right time and know when to go wide early and when to await room.

Some jockeys have detectable preferences and you can find out what these are by looking at the past performances and the charts and seeing where jockeys place their horses.  Generally, these trends become very evident with only a few days of observation.  Most professional jockeys even know the likely tendencies of those horses that they are riding against.

Past performances provide jockey statistics which can help you handicap the horse race.  If you are placing a bet on a new track (you should not be until you are familiar with the trainers and riders),these statistical aids can be particularly helpful when facing unfamiliar circumstances.

Generally, smaller stables have more difficulty getting these top tier jockeys.  Thus, the appearance of one of the above on a horse that you like, or any other for that matter, is a fact of which you should take particular note!  The presence of a top jockey that fits one of these requirements should cause you to carefully re-evaluate any chance that a horse has in the race.

Not even the best jockey can carry a horse to the finish line, but by not making tactical mistakes, by saving ground, by being aware of the pace, by staying out of trouble and by understanding the track and its biases, they can get the best horse to the finish line first more often than not.  Along with a competitive nature, these characteristics are what make good jockeys win races and place them in demand.  A new jockey on the circuit who shows these characteristics will not go unnoticed for very long because he will get chances on winning horses. 

Good jockeys at any given time are aware of how the racing surface is currently playing.  Good jockeys are themselves confident and that sense of confidence is conveyed to and picked up by the horse he is sitting upon.  And because of this, there is every likelihood that the horse will likely run better for him.

On most circuits, there are several jockeys who are competent but are not currently fashionable — perhaps for personality reasons or their work ethic or their reliability.  The horse bettor must use his judgment when one of these is named on the horse that he likes.  These types win races at good prices.

A switch to a top five jockey, a go to jockey or a jockey who has won on the horse before should be seen as an important positive in the handicapping process.  A jockey who remains on a horse for a second consecutive race following a less than impressive race is another potential positive.   The significance of the latter grows when it is for a small or low profile stable.

Depending upon the racetrack that you play, you might be able to build a method of play using the top jockey factor as a starting point.  Various jockey angle plays can be profitable: jockey on surface or distance, first-time on a horse, with a certain trainer and so on.

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