What Factors To Consider When Wagering On A Horse Articles | Horse Betting

By: Richard Bleuze

What Factors To Consider When Wagering On A Horse

Here are some simple tactics which may be helpful to a new horse bettors:

Is the horse fit?
Before a horse can be considered, it should be determined that he's physically fit enough to be at or near his best.  Examine the dates of prior last races. The more recent races he has, the more certain of his fitness.

If he's been away from the races for two months or more, I suggest passing on the horse.  Usually, fitness is best derived by a combination of competition and training.  The longer the layoff, the more difficult the comeback.

Is the horse in your opinion in the proper class?
Class in thoroughbred racing can be defined by saying that class is the quality of competition a horse can compete favorably against.  One should look at the prior conditions under which the horse has raced.  A horse cannot be expected to win without having shown a past ability to do so against similar competition.  If he has not shown the past ability, then I suggest that you do not wager on the horse.  Can the horse compete against the competition?  If so, then consider the horse.

Is the horse up to the distance?
Through either breeding, conformation, running style, or training techniques, horses generally do better at certain distances.  Review all past races listed to determine if he's done well at the designated distance.  If he's a proven competitor at today's distance, then the horse has the potential to handle the distance.  Remember, never expect a horse to do something he's never done before.

Is the horse post position a detriment?
The post position draw is a random drawing done after entries for a race are taken.  It matters greatly and can often turn a potential winner into a dead loser, and vice-versa!  Track biases exist at many tracks, favoring inside or outside post positions.  Check post position statistics listed in programs to see if certain posts appear better than others.  As a general rule, far outside posts in bulky fields in sprints (10 or more) can prove more challenging.  The two inside posts in big fields can also be detrimental. Early speed is usually preferable for both inside and outside posts because without it, outside horses lose ground and inside ones get trapped.  Thus, the horse bettor should know the running style ofthe horse.  In longer, two-turn-races, inside posts are almost always preferred.  The shorter the two-turn race, the more it favors inside.

What is the running style of the horse that you are considering?
Horses generally settle into a certain style of running, broken down into three categories: pace-setter or front runner, horses who run in the lead or who are never further back than two lengths; stalker, horses who are never further back from the lead than 4 lengths; and closer or rally types, horses who are never closer than five lengths from the pace.  The majority of horses do not change running styles in their career.  True front runners always try for the lead when possible.  Front runners are most effective when unchallenged early.  The easier they are able to get a clear lead, the better the chances.  Prefer front runners when there are few, if any, potential challengers or if a pronounced track bias favoring early speed exists. Otherwise, look more favorably upon those that can stalk or rally.

A stalker rarely makes the lead, and seldom possesses a big late kick.  A stalker has the speed to stay close and pass tiring front runners, and can hold off the big closers that lag well behind.  Always pick a stalker when numerous front runners are present, and without the presence of a strong and fit rally or closer horse.

Rally or closers are best when an abundance of early speed exists and are often victimized when a front runner is loose on the lead.  Playing rally or closers is more precarious than horses with speed as they can run into traffic problems.  And, statistics show that horses closer to the lead win the majority of races.

Who is the trainer?
Give careful consideration to the trainer.  Trainers have a big job and must have a wealth of knowledge about a large number of facets of training a horse to race.  Statistics point out that the top trainers at the track and a handicapper that pays attention to the trainers of every horse in every race will soon have a good working knowledge of which ones are acceptable when making a final decision.

Who is the jockey and has he ridden the horse in a prior race?
Checking out statistics at most tracks, a small percentage of riders win the great majority of the races.  Jockeys must possess good riding techniques, have strength, intelligence, good judgment and timing and have an ability to communicate with the horse.  Some jockeys are far more proficient than others, and by perusing the statistics one can learn which are the most reliable. 

Is the horse in good present form?
When making a final selection it's important to determine that the horse is in good present form.  Review the finishes of his most recent races tells you if he's racing well and competitively.  Statistics prove that horses that have recently won or have been reasonably close, win the majority of races.  Initially select horses that appear to be in form or rounding to form, and be wary of horses that have raced well, but show signs of tailing off.  Sometimes horses that have not been close to winning of late are dropped in class and can still be considered viable choices, but the horse  bettor should expect that the horse in question at least showed some interest against better competition.  When making a final decision, it is a wise practice to play horses with good present form and eliminate those that are obviously off form.

Has the horse been consistent in the past?
A handicapper should look for horses that are more likely to run well than not.  Before placing a bet on a certain horse, a handicapper should demand consistency before making a horse a serious contender.

What is the weight of the horse?
Some handicappers use the weight carried by a horse as a critical factor.  Race horses can weigh well over 1,000 pounds.  Thus, I find it hard to understand how 20 pounds or less would affect a horse.

If you decide to use weight as a handicapping variable, it may be prudent not to consider weight a factor unless it involves at least a difference of 20 pounds or more.

Speed Figures
Various speed figures (Beyers, etc.) have been compiled in recent years.  These figures basically assign a number to each race run by a horse. Beyer numbers, the most popular, are based almost exclusively by running times in conjunction with track conditions.

In my opinion, the numbers should be used more as a guide only.  Generally speaking, use speed figures as one of the many available handicapping tools.

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