Horse Racing Guide Articles | Horse Betting

By: Richard Bleuze

For horseplayers to succeed, they must be decision makers.  Not only must they solve the unique equation that leads to selecting the right horse(s) in a particular race but they also must choose the right wagering approach in order to maximize their profits

I hope that the guide below will be addressed before you make a wager.   

1. FORM: Nothing else really matters if a horse is not in "form" and the first task in attacking a race is to eliminate those runners that don't appear to be fit from a condition standpoint, either through recent racing or with a string of workouts that suggest the animal is set to do its best work. A competitive recent race is the most reliable indicator for fitness. Horses that haven't raced in 30+ days should either offer ample workout evidence that they are doing well, have a history of performing well off short (or longer) breaks and come from barns that regularly win races. The group that doesn't fit into this rather wide parameter should be eliminated from further consideration.  This is the #1 element in successful horse racing handicapping.

2. ABILITY: How fast can the remaining horses in the field run on their best day?  The task at hand is to determine two things: What is the horse capable of doing? and, what does it figure to do today? Those horses that do not figure within three lengths of the top contenders in the race can be eliminated.

3. CLASS: This is a tricky part of the puzzle since horses can improve and regress quickly in this day-and-age of year-round racing when trainers try and squeeze races out of horses that obviously need a rest and the track veterinarians help them do it with an array of legal medications. Often, outclassed horses will be eliminated in Step #2 but in the case of horses stepping up in class off impressive efforts, it's necessary to analyze how those figs were earned. Horses that benefitted from easy pace pictures, strong bias situations or simply raced against a bad bunch of rivals, should be viewed with skepticism when trying to step up to a tougher level. The best class jumpers to play are those that tailed off, dropped in class and are now moving back up while appearing to have regained their form. "Past Class" is a big horse racing handicapping plus and is often overlooked by many players.

4. RACE CONDITIONS: Does the horse like today's surface and today's distance? Before going any further with a possible contender,  be relatively certain in your mind that he'll handle today's conditions.

5. CONNECTIONS:  A great rider and an accomplished trainer can't win on a bad horse but by this stage you should have eliminated the "bad" ones. However, "good" horses can be beaten by a jock's poor decision or by a trainer who has a hard time cinching up a saddle correctly. Let the record guide you in this area. Eliminate horse's trained or ridden by traditionally low-percentage stables or jocks.

6. BREEDING: Pedigree analysis is only significant when analyzing a horse that has not had an ample opportunity to show what it can do under today's conditions. First-time-starters bred for sprint speed vs. those bred to run best going longer. Sprinters trying to go long. Dirt types moving to turf. The only time you should concern yourself with breeding is when a potential contender has survived the first five steps of this procedure. When playing a horse 'on the come', always get good value and be willing pass on the race when the favorites are not proven under today's conditions, even if their pedigree says they should handle the situation.

After completing these six steps you should have eliminated the pretenders and whittled the field down to the contenders. The more contentious a race looks on paper, the more "value" you should demand. It makes no sense to back the favorite in a ten-horse field where it looks like five other horses can also win. Make some kind of odds line so that you have an idea of which horses are true overlays in your own mind.

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